Thursday, December 14, 2006

Stats: $.50/1 (12/14/2006)

The first level is complete. My BB/100 is lower than what I expect is my "true" winrate, but that's fine. I've enjoyed playing 6-max much more than full ring, mostly because it's a different game. I'm a little surprised that my stats are 25/17 and not 25/20, but I guess this means I'm limping in behind a little bit more than iso-raising. This could be good or bad. I don't think the 3% raising makes a huge difference in my bottom line, but it will almost certainly increase the variance.

I see that I did, in fact, clear the 100 BB mark earlier, but it happened in the middle of a session. I don't watch the totals very closely as I play, so I didn't really know that I was over the top until after the fact. There were four somewhat substantial downswings during this 5000 hand run. Horray for variance.

I'm not sure how to make these images appear in full size, but that's okay. Click on them and they should pop up nice and big.

General Stats:
Graph:
Details Page:
Position Tab:

Other observations:

There are so many little nuances to this game. An interesting situation is what happens postflop when you open-raise preflop. Of the 5243 hands that I played, 569 of them were open-raised (Raised First In filter), winning $231.00 (0.41 BB/hand). Here are some stats regarding those hands:
  • 242 hands (42.5%) were won before showdown, winning $336.15 (1.39 BB/hand)
  • 90 hands (15.8% of all hands, 37.2% of win before showdown hands) were won without a flop, winning $58.25 (0.65 BB/hand)
  • 187 hands (32.9%) went to showdown, winning $147.35 (0.79 BB/hand)
  • 138 hands (24.3%) were folded before showdown, losing $250.50 (-1.82 BB/hand)
  • 40 hands (7.0% of all RFI hands, 29.0% of FBSD hands) were folded on the river, losing $99.00 (-2.48 BB/hand)
  • 370 hands (65.0%) were "Chance to Steal and Raised", winning $93.50 (0.25 BB/hand)
The first two points together show that there were 152 hands (26.7%) where I open-raised and took a flop, but won before showdown. A quick calculation shows that these hands won $277.90 (1.83 BB/hand). Since you expect about .7 BB from the blinds preflop, this suggests that postflop play collected roughly 1.1 BB. This implies that the action often gets to the turn and river, for otherwise this number would be about 0.8 BB or so (0.5 BB from the flop if it's heads up). This strongly suggests that it is often important to bet the turn after betting the flop.

Of course, as a consequence of betting the turn, there is a question of what to do on the river. Out of position, I do a lot of check-folding with junky hands (notice that the folded on the river hands are very close to -2.5 BB/hand -- This corresponds to 1 BB preflop, 0.5 SB on the flop, 1 BB on the turn, then check-folding the river).

What about folds before the river? Another caluation shows that I lost $151.50 in 98 hands (-1.55 BB/hand, 17.2% of all hands). This represents a lot of betting the flop and checking on the turn. This could be both giving up out of position and checking behind on the turn to improve cheaply. I believe there are a number of flop folds to donk bets, too, and those are usually with pocket pairs that flopped overcards and weaker stealing hands.

Here is another batch of RFI stats:
  • 271 hands (47.6%) were heads up on the flop, winning $50.65 (0.19 BB/hand).
  • 170 hands (29.9%) were 3-handed on the flop, winning $49.65 (0.29 BB/hand).
  • 40 hands (7.0%) were 4-handed or more on the flop, winning $70.45 (1.76 BB/hand).
  • 88 hands (15.5%) were won before the flop, winning $60.25 (0.68 BB/hand).
I was a little confused by PokerTracker because it gave me two different values for winning hands before the flop. In this situation, I used the "Between x and y players on the flop" filter and in the previous case, I clicked the "There Was No Flop" box. Further inspection showed that there have been two situations where I've raised first in, but folded preflop after it came back to me capped.

For the 271 heads up flops:
  • 115 hands (42.4%) were won before showdown, winning $169.90 (1.48 BB/hand)
  • 42 hands (15.5%) were won at showdown, winning $131.15 (3.12 BB/hand)
  • 63 hands (23.4%) were folded before showdown, losing $113.00 (-1.79 BB/hand)
  • 49 hands (18.1%) were lost at showdown, losing $135.40 (-2.76 BB/hand)
I don't really know what these numbers mean. I guess it means that I win before showdown about twice as often as I have to give up before showdown, which is good. It also shows that I'm actually losing a little bit of money when I go to showdown, but it's close.

I think I'm done with this analysis now.

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