Hands from March 1

I'm going to try to get back in the habit of posting hands that I find interesting giving some commentaries on them.

Hand #1:

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (4 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)

Preflop: Hero is BB with As, 6s.
UTG calls, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 3c, Ac, Tc (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, Button folds, SB calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) Kc (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks...

When I see this flop 4 handed, I assume that someone is holding a club. If it were 2 handed, I think such an assumption would be irrational, and if it were 3-handed, I think it's dicey, but I don't think you should assume that you're automatically beat by a club. If you assume that there's a 25% chance of each of villain's hole card being a club (a false assumption because you already know 3 clubs out, plus 2 non-clubs), you'll find the following probabilities for there being a club against you:

1 villain: 44%
2 villains: 68%
3 villains: 82%

The assumptions here tend to overestimate the chances of being against a club, but I think for 2 and 3 villains, getting called on the flop generally skews the probabilities towards clubs (medium clubs, usually), so I think they're pretty safe numbers to be using.

Ironically, after I checked, this got checked through and the river was a 5th club. Nobody bet at it, and nobody had a club and it got chopped 3-ways.

Hand #2:
PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 3c, As. MP posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls, MP (poster) checks, 2 folds, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) Kd, Ah, 4c (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks.

Turn: (2 BB) 6c (4 players)
Hero bets, BB folds, UTG calls, MP folds.

River: (4 BB) Ac (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 6 BB

This is a classic spot to "check and see" when out of position with a medium-strength hand. I could be persuaded to bet here, but I think checking is correct. I might end up writing a short article for the 2+2 micros, so I don't want to spend a lot of time now typing out my thoughts. Here are the considerations when deciding between betting and checking:

* How many other players are in the pot?
* What are the chances of this being bet by worse hands?
* What are the chances of getting raised by worse hands?
* What draws are available?
* What are the chances that a free card would sink your hand?

As these variables change, you should become more or less inclined to lead out instead of checking.

Hand #3

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (5 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Kd, Ks. MP posts a blind of $0.25.
Hero raises, MP (poster) calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (10 SB) Jd, 9s, 5d (5 players)
SB bets, BB folds, Hero raises, MP folds, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (8 BB) Kc (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, Button calls, SB calls.

River: (17 BB) 7s (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, SB folds.

Final Pot: 19 BB

This is more of a brag hand. Button ended up here with KT, and his turn raise is very very bad given the action. I'm not sure what SB had here, but my best guess is something like QJ.

Hand #4

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (5 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Ks, Qs.
1 fold, MP raises, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.40 SB) Ac, 2s, 4h (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: (3.20 BB) Qd (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

River: (5.20 BB) 2c (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

Calling down from the turn donk is standard. I lost to Ax, but I think folding the turn or river without a good read is a bit too weak, especially because if he were an aggressive villain, he may well be betting a worse Q there. A more interesting problem is how to respond to a check-raise on the turn if I bet the turn. I would like to say that I would fold, but I'm not sure that's entirely true.

Hand #5

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Jc, Ks.
1 fold, MP raises, 2 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 8h, 2c, 2h (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB folds, BB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) Js (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (6 BB) 6h (2 players)
BB checks, MP bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10 BB

Results:
BB has 7h Kh (flush, king high).
Hero has Jc Ks (two pair, jacks and twos).
Outcome: BB wins 10 BB.

I have to admit that I'm not thrilled with paying off this river raise. It's a flush very often, followed by a very slowplayed trips, and then 66. Worse jacks would normally have raised on the turn. I think this is a spot where folding top pair second kicker is probably the correct play, despite the pot size. Villain would have to be incredibly bold to check-raise a worse hand on the end.

Hand #6

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Kc, Qs.
UTG calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Button calls, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (10 SB) Jc, 2s, 5c (5 players)
Hero bets, BB folds, UTG folds, CO calls, Button calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 4c (3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Button calls, Hero calls.

River: (9.50 BB) Qd (3 players)
Hero bets, CO folds, Button calls.

The flop bet here is probably wrong. Too many players, not enough chance of getting them all to fold, and not enough chance of getting them to fold the turn the 85% of the time I do not improve to a pair.

The turn check-call should be standard. Betting again will not make hands with a single club fold, and I don't often have the best hand anyway.

The river donk is standard because an overcard to the board will tend to freeze up players from making value bets on the end, especially when a check will often get them to showdown for free.

Hand #7

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (5 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Js, Qs.
UTG calls, 2 folds, SB completes, Hero raises, UTG calls, SB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) Kh, 4s, 2s (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, SB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) Qc (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, SB calls.

River: (7.50 BB) 9c (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks.

The preflop raise with QJs is something I didn't do for a while, but now I think it's standard. QJs flopping top pair in a shorthanded pot is usually best, and flopping flushes and straight draws are also very good.

The turn bet here seems standard to me because the flop calls don't mean much of anything at this level, but when they both call me, I have to reconsider the value of my hand on the river. The spade draw missed, meaning that I'm not likely to pick up any bets from them unless they have the 9 of spades. I could be against a weaker king, which is bad for me. But besides that, because the second and third cards on the flop were so small, I don't think I gain a lot from a bet. I probably do check-call this because of the chances of a missed draw trying to pick up the pot, plus potentially worse queens like QT or Q8 might think their hand is good. (There are more hands might bet than hands that might call, which is generally a recipe for check-calling.)

Hand #8

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9c, Tc.
1 fold, MP calls, 1 fold, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 6c, 9s, Qs (4 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, MP raises, Button folds, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 7d (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

River: (8 BB) 8c (3 players)
SB bets, BB folds, MP calls.

This is another standard river donk like in the above hand. The board has gotten scary, and the chances of the bettor wimping out on the end is quite large. To add to the problem (something I didn't mention above), a check-raise here almost certainly drives out BB, whereas he is more likely to call one bet if I lead.